Developing adaptability to deal with large, disruptive changes is what we call deep adaptation
Developing adaptability to deal with large, disruptive changes is what we call deep adaptation
Dutch drinking water companies and water authorities are well prepared for short-term deviations from the daily ‘normal’ situation. There is a plan for almost every conceivable scenario, to stabilize the situation as quickly as possible and return to normal. But what if a return to the old situation is not possible? Hygiene, water safety and safe drinking water will still be essential. It is less clear whether and how this can be achieved. Geopolitical developments and recent insights into the consequences of a possible collapse of the warm Gulf Stream make these questions even more urgent. We refer to the development of the ability to adapt to such changes as deep adaptation.
The central question is how drinking water companies and water authorities can continue to function under rapidly changing circumstances. What choices can we make now to be better prepared, and what should we do when such a change occurs? We first discuss the human tendency to avoid radical changes when thinking about the future, and highlight two examples. We then ask ourselves how we can better understand such shifts. We translate this into current choices and finally describe the beginning of a perspective for action.
Continuity bias: underestimating the future
Our thinking about the future is often framed in a small number of scenarios. Examples include the Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate scenarios and the spatial planning scenarios developed by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL). A well-known pitfall here is the so-called continuity bias: we tend to imagine the future as some variant of the present. This means we rarely take drastic changes, such as those described above, into account in foresight studies and planning. It is hard for us to picture such a sudden shift actually happening, and we therefore assume the likelihood is very small. In reality, we often lack the means to estimate that probability accurately. But unpredictable does not equal unimaginable.
Climate tipping points
In climate scenarios, so-called tipping points—a slight exceedance of a threshold triggers major, irreversible shifts—are a significant source of uncertainty. The weakening and possible collapse of the warm Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which it is a part, is a climate tipping point that now regularly attracts media attention. The predicted consequences for Western Europe include cooling (especially in winter), reduced precipitation, more storms, and additional sea level rise. This would negatively affect freshwater availability and water infrastructure. Several experts consider it likely that this collapse will begin within this century.
Stability – an uncertain certainty
We do not always realise that our society may not be as stable as it appears. Throughout history, stable and prosperous societies have often lasted only a few centuries. After that, there is usually a period of—drastic or gradual—decline in social and economic capital, population size, and/or societal complexity. We must acknowledge that our society faces a series of growing challenges that could affect social stability. An increasing share of the global population is already experiencing impacts on food and water supply. The rise of artificial intelligence may also have unpredictable consequences—not only for the economy and politics, but certainly for water and energy supply as well.
Water remains essential
The unpredictability of discontinuous changes does not render scenario-based studies and decision-making useless. However, it does argue for moving away from a traditional risk-based approach (probability x impact), since a meaningful probability estimate is not possible. In scenario studies, we must also consider events of which we cannot know the likelihood. Because they are plausible and could have major consequences—possibly also for the water sector—it is important to reflect on them. How can we ensure safe drinking water, water security, and hygienic wastewater treatment under deteriorating conditions?
Lessons from crisis and conflict zones
Some insight into possible consequences can be gained by studying drinking water supply in crisis areas. Bolton [1] identifies several vulnerabilities, to which we have added our own interpretations (see Figure 1):
![Fig 1 EN[47]](/assets/files/fig-1-en-47.png)
Figure 1. Vulnerabilities and consequences in drinking water supply (blue arrows) and supporting energy infrastructure (red arrows)
Various case studies [2] present different pictures of collapse and recovery. Gaziantep (Turkey) showed slow recovery after the 2023 earthquake. Cape Town demonstrated unexpected solidarity and creativity in 2018 in the run-up to the day when water was expected to run out (‘Day Zero’). The tsunami in Fukushima (Japan, 2011) exposed shortcomings in government preparedness.
Action Perspective
To create an action perspective for the drinking water and wastewater sector, KWR, drinking water companies, water authorities, and universities have launched the project ‘Deep Adaptation for the Water Sector’. The first exploratory phase was carried out in 2024. In the second phase, we are working on (1) concrete deep adaptation measures and (2) a shared language, incorporated into guidelines for communication and discussion about the consequences of sudden, profound change for the water sector.
In these projects, we explore how different aspects of the resilience of drinking water systems can be strengthened (see Figure 2). For well-known disruptions, water systems are prepared through absorptive capacity: the system absorbs the shock and continues. If the system fails nonetheless, restorative capacity comes into play: how do we restore it as quickly as possible?
The multi-layered safety perspective applied by water authorities (prevention, impact limitation, water awareness, crisis management, recovery) is recognisable here. Within prevention, the following principles recur:
Impact limitation is reflected in modularity: independently operating subsystems, such as treatment lines. The water awareness layer is represented by:
The crisis management layer includes resourcefulness—the skill to manage a disruption effectively—and graceful degradability, where a disruption leads not to rapid collapse but to a gradual decline in performance. In the recovery layer, we distinguish recoverability and rapidity.
Adaptive capacity
When preparing for (dis)continuous system change, adaptive capacity is key: how do we redesign the system to cope with future disruptions? Several principles can be applied:
Figure 2. Three aspects of resilience and the fourteen principles that contribute to it, adapted from [3]
Experiences in crisis and conflict zones lead to the recommendation [4] to strengthen flexibility, resourcefulness, restorative capacity, redundancy, and modularity in particular.
Raising awareness about system shifts and reflecting on what these could mean for the water sector is a first step. Deep adaptation measures are expected to focus on increasing preparedness and flexibility. This will likely result in greater redundancy, diversity, and modularity.
These aspects have both technical and organisational dimensions. The ongoing digitalisation of the water sector helps to improve situational awareness. A key point of attention here is the availability of fallback options in case of failure of underlying infrastructure. The concrete implementation of all these aspects is work in progress in the now-started phase 2, which includes:
Based on this, we are developing deep adaptation strategies and a toolkit for discussion and communication on discontinuous scenarios and deep adaptation.
Major and sudden changes with lasting impact represent a blind spot for both the water sector and society. We rarely think about them, yet they can certainly occur and have major consequences. How can drinking water companies and water authorities continue their work if the world changes drastically? The project Deep Adaptation for the Water Sector takes the first steps towards long-term resilience.